tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post3992035448734628042..comments2022-05-15T15:21:49.064-05:00Comments on Pensées Par Contre: What is the problem?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-46270888735588388312013-06-18T15:35:24.703-05:002013-06-18T15:35:24.703-05:00It's 2013. I stumbled along this blog post via...It's 2013. I stumbled along this blog post via a ,ink in the comment section Zero Hedge. How times can change and an epic blog post is more relevant today despite its age of almost 5% <br /><br />Print, copy and sharing it with my few loved ones who actually understand the predicament we are in.<br /><br />The last paragraph strikes me in particular. You could say you have written about initiatives like Bitcoin avant la lettre. Sending chills down my spine.<br /><br />Together, we will overcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-49886176210219262662008-09-15T17:03:00.000-05:002008-09-15T17:03:00.000-05:00Wow, I'm really flattered that people are read...Wow, I'm really flattered that people are reading my blog. I checked every day after my first post, but there were never any comments, so I quit checking it so often. Obviously I need to pay more attention.<BR/><BR/>I will be writing whenever I get the urge to say something - who knows when that will be. I have a BS in finance from University of Illinois, a MS in financial markets & trading from Illinois Institute of Technology and have been a Chartered Financial Analyst for 10 years. I worked on the CME floor for a number of years and on a forex/futures desk for an equal length of time. I've worked more miscellaneous jobs than I can remember, and have honorable discharges from two different armies.<BR/><BR/>I didn't specifically say it in my post, but I don't think the US government can make good on all its obligations, which means they will be inflated away, but that will probably take place over a number of years, and there will be vicious and absolutely hideous market swings between various extremes. So be very careful about trading.<BR/><BR/>At the end of the day, a fiat currency is only as good as the country, and its government, that issues it. So I would have more confidence in the Swiss franc than the euro, and more confidence in the euro than the Chinese yuan. While there's plenty of money to be made trading currencies, it's a dangerous game.<BR/><BR/>My advice for the unsophisticated investor is to play the swings, but without using leverage. That is, buy what's out of favor and sell it when it becomes popular. Right now, I would be accumulating precious metals or mining stocks. Gold and silver have been crushed lately, but I think that's a symptom of the financial implosion that is approaching. Banks, hedge funds and other institutions are so desperate for dollars that they will sell whatever they can to get them (or borrow yen and sell that). But as some point, the Fed and Treasury will pull out all the stops and try to reflate the economy. So while metals could go a lot lower, I think the upside is huge.<BR/><BR/>At some point, and it will probably be at least a year, I see gold getting out of control and the Fed being forced to raise rates. As I said in my post, eventually interest rates have to move through the Tipping Point and up to the Equilibrium. Right now there is a desperate shortage of capital, and the Fed is struggling to hold rates down, which indicates how high the Equilibrium already is.<BR/><BR/>Try to be out of metals and into Treasury bills before the metals peak. When interest rates spike, I would look to buy a nice piece of real estate - a farm or ranch, not a condo - that would represent my nest egg for the future. If things get real bad, you can always live there. Just make sure it's somewhere that respects property rights.Pensées Par Contrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16277563368902233707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-42759334177985090652008-09-09T17:42:00.000-05:002008-09-09T17:42:00.000-05:00I'm living in Turkey. And many thanks to internet ...I'm living in Turkey. And many thanks to internet and people like you who share their knowledge.<BR/><BR/>A.TavasliogluAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-41025982909197048562008-09-06T22:19:00.000-05:002008-09-06T22:19:00.000-05:00Superb blog! Please write more of your thoughts. I...Superb blog! Please write more of your thoughts. I read some of your posts on thr ticker site. Please expand. SSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-33289603499281148152008-09-06T20:37:00.000-05:002008-09-06T20:37:00.000-05:00So what central banks are increasing CB rates?Are ...So what central banks are increasing CB rates?<BR/><BR/>Are all the Wextern world economies including the ECB going to lower Central bank rates and will this cause the lift in USD we are seeing at the moment?...then this will leave room for the Fed to lower Reserve rates again and deflate the debt?<BR/><BR/>Does this mean I should get out of all currancies?<BR/><BR/>I cannot afford like many others to get caught up in this ,it will wipe me out and ruin my life.<BR/><BR/>I ahve got Gold ,but i am so scared and worried having my "eggs" all in one basket.<BR/><BR/>Thanks <BR/>AlexAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-85546217061763036172008-09-06T09:29:00.000-05:002008-09-06T09:29:00.000-05:00Completely agree with the other posts - excellent ...Completely agree with the other posts - excellent essay. The investment ramifications to me are to buy real assets such as gold and silver, to short the broad equity indices, and to short US treasuries (the 10-year is currently yielding only 3.6%). Of course this is the opposite of what the government wants and thus those positions, while likely successful, would be swimming against the tide of their policies and actions so are not without considerable short term risks.<BR/><BR/>MattAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-29669852139337119062008-09-06T04:00:00.000-05:002008-09-06T04:00:00.000-05:00Fantastic Essay.what are your thoughts on curranci...Fantastic Essay.<BR/>what are your thoughts on currancies,particularily the Swiss Franc,Rinmimbi and the yen.<BR/><BR/>I have my savings sitting in NZ dollars and some Gold and USD.<BR/><BR/>I am looking at transferring the NZDs to swiss and yen (particularily as the yen carry trade unwinds).<BR/><BR/>I have to admit I am quite frightened with what is happening to my savings,the NZ reserve banks is lowering rates so I need to get out of NZD,...<BR/><BR/>I wonder if you could suggest some books,or just give a objective analysis.<BR/><BR/>Once again ,your essay is superb, I along with others from the Kitco site (on Cyclists thread) were recommended to read your Blog.<BR/><BR/>I am wondering if I should have some of my savings in Agriculture stocks.<BR/><BR/>Thanks<BR/>AlexAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8219579248485363625.post-33332981946997553712008-09-05T22:12:00.000-05:002008-09-05T22:12:00.000-05:00Excellent essay! What are your credentials and wil...Excellent essay! What are your credentials and will you be writing more soon? Steve SAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com